Polysilicon prices continued to stabilize this week, where mono-Si compound feedings and mono-Si dense materials were respectively concluded at a mainstream price of RMB 308/kg and RMB 305/kg. Most polysilicon orders for October have now been signed. Despite apparent increase in overall supply for the polysilicon market and aggressiveness in stocking from the downstream sector, there remains no inventory of polysilicon, which explains the persistently robust prices. Related departments have recently met up with businesses and attempted to interfere with the prices of the polysilicon market. Polysilicon prices may be somewhat adjusted at the end of the month when market participants negotiate for November orders. Polysilicon prices are expected to remain at a high level throughout October.
An observation on the production and operation of the polysilicon segment this week indicates that Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia have been experiencing severe COVID-19 outbreaks, which although have yet to interfere with production, have resulted in a lower-than-expected release of capacity among new players due to the postponed transportation time of polysilicon that has restricted the actual provision of the product. In addition, wafer prices are kept at a high level, which weakens the appeal of price reduction for polysilicon.
Wafer prices were overall sturdy this week, where M10 and G12 were respectively concluded at a mainstream price of RMB 7.53/pc and RMB 9.93/pc. G12 wafers remain relatively robust in prices due to confined provision, while M10 wafers, currently under sufficient supply, are lacking inflation dynamics as suppliers rushed to eliminate their inventory before the National Day holiday from the concern of reducing polysilicon prices. Wafer prices are temporarily exempted from anticipation in reduction after the National Day holiday as the pandemic has somewhat impacted the production of crystal pulling and restricted the output accordingly. Prices are expected to stabilize for the short term.
Cell prices had risen evidently this week, where mono-Si M6 cells remained at roughly RMB 1.29/W, while M10 cells had slightly climbed to approximately RMB 1.33/W, and G12 cells had somewhat risen to about RMB 1.31/W. Thriving end demand, together with the stocking demand for the National Day holiday, had generated a compelling level of cell transactions before the holiday, and some businesses have commented that they were not able to obtain goods even under high prices. Large-sized cells remain tight in supply after the holiday, followed by an increase in prices, and the demand for cells will only continue to persist alongside the recovery of end demand. A segment of the new capacity is expected to release between late October and November, and prices are still likely to rise in the short term that will further bump up the profitability of cell businesses.
Module quotations were stabilized this week, where mono-Si 166mm modules sat at approximately RMB 1.91/W, while mono-Si and single-sided 182 and 210mm modules were concluded at roughly RMB 1.97/W, whereas 182 and 210mm bifacial double-glass mono-Si PERC modules were concluded at RMB 1.99/W.
The steady activation of large ground power station projects in the country recently, coupling with how the aggravated energy crisis overseas is continuously extending module demand and bringing down shipping cost, have smoothened the overall shipment of modules and elevated order volume, where some businesses are now waiting to increase their prices as low-price resources are slowly diminishing on the market. The further increment of operating rate from the module segment during October for the purpose of fulfilling market demand may introduce another wave of inflation.
In terms of auxiliary materials, glass prices remained robust on the weaker end this week, where 3.2 and 2.0mm glasses sat at a respective mainstream price of roughly RMB 26.5/㎡ and RMB 20/㎡, with more price compression seen on the latter at a concluded price of RMB 19-19.5/㎡. The enlarged production schedule of modules in October will lead to increase in glass demand. Module makers, due to their anticipation towards the continuously magnifying glass inventory, are attempting to control their pace of procurement and manage their a-Si cost. Glass prices, after taking into account the production cost of glass businesses, are likely to remain stable for the short term.