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Industry Chain Prices Likely to Stabilize in Short Term with Polysilicon and Wafer Prices Soon Hitting Rock Bottom

published: 2023-06-15 15:28


Polysilicon prices saw a larger reduction this week, where mono-Si compound feedings and mono-Si dense materials were concluded at a respective mainstream price of RMB 72/kg and RMB 70/kg at a decrement of more than 25%.

For the supply end, the continuous increase of polysilicon capacity is leading to an on-going elevation of inventory pressure, and the excess supply of polysilicon is not expected to be alleviated within the short term. As for the demand end, wafer businesses, who are ridding their inventory amidst the incessant drop of wafer prices, are not all that willing towards polysilicon procurement, and some of them are shrinking their cycles of order signing in the hope of reducing losses from price drops. Polysilicon prices have now fallen below the cost level of partial older processes, where suspensions and overhauls have been occurring subsequently. Individual businesses, in order to mitigate their losses, have decided to postpone in production. Polysilicon prices, as they are on the verge of hitting rock bottom, could decelerate in succeeding decrement.


Wafer prices continued to fall this week, where M10 and G12 were concluded at a respective mainstream price of RMB 2.8/pc and RMB 4.2/pc at a respective drop of 20% and 16%.

Wafer prices are steadily hitting rock bottom as wafer businesses reduce their production and get rid of inventory through price drops, which led to a sizable and expedited drop of wafer and rod ingot inventory. However, wafer prices are expected to remain on the declining slope within the short term due to the persistently excessive supply, before potentially stabilizing subsequently after a decelerated reduction of upstream polysilicon prices and the depletion of wafer inventory.


Cell prices had carried on with a declination this week, where M10 and G12 were respectively concluded at RMB 0.79/W and RMB 0.83/W, while M10 mono-Si TOPCon had dropped to RMB 0.87/W.

The cell sector is essentially maintaining a full load operation for the supply end. As for the demand side of the market, N-type cells are supported in orders thanks to improving demand despite module makers currently being at the inventory reduction phase. Cell prices have slightly dropped after the considerable reduction of upstream polysilicon and wafer prices, and the small price drop could persist for the short term under module makers’ price inhibition.


Module prices continued to fall this week, where 182 & 210 single-sided mono-Si PERC modules were concluded at a respective mainstream price of RMB 1.45/W and RMB 1.48/W, while 182 & 210 bifacial double-glass mono-Si PERC modules were respectively concluded at RMB 1.46/W and RMB 1.49/W.

For the supply end, most module makers are digesting their inventory amidst yet-to-be stabilized PV industry chain prices, and are currently waiting for a stabilization in prices without any apparent increment in overall operating rate. As for the demand end, the end sector is manifesting a strong wait-and-see sentiment amidst the on-going reduction of industry chain prices, and is seeing a worse-than-expected operation. Module prices are expected to drop at a small degree continuously before various upstream segments suspend in price drops. Comprehensively speaking, polysilicon and wafer prices are about to hit rock bottom, and end demand may once again be initiated subsequent to further stabilization of industry chain prices and the conclusion of inventory organization.

In terms of auxiliary materials, glass prices have had a small drop this week, where 3.2 & 2.0mm glass were respectively priced at RMB 25.5/㎡ and roughly RMB 18/㎡. Module makers have been implementing purchases accordingly to actual needs recently due to the on-going decrement of PV industry chain prices, though some makers are sacrificing prices for quantity having seen the slight increase of overall PV glass inventory.

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