Polysilicon
Inventory:
Current polysilicon inventories across the industry exceed 420,000 tons, with signs of continued increase. This is mainly due to high inventories at downstream ingot (crystal-pulling) plants, while growing expectations for wafer price declines are prompting more cautious procurement strategies.
Supply:
Leading polysilicon producers in Sichuan and Yunnan plan to suspend production in November. Although Xinte Energy’s Zhundong facility is ramping up and East Hope has begun trial production in its Ningxia bases, these incremental volumes are limited and insufficient to offset the reduced output from major polysilicon producers. Overall polysilicon output in November is expected to fall by around 10,000 tons month-on-month.
Price Trend:
Although polysilicon manufacturers are attempting to push up prices amid reserve-buying expectations and the impact of price control policies, actual transaction prices have not followed. With the domestic market entering a seasonal lull, downstream buyers are expected to remain cautious. Polysilicon prices are likely to stay at a “high but inactive” level through November–December, characterized by limited transactions at high prices.
Wafers
Inventory:
Current wafer inventory stands at about 20 GW, up roughly 100 million pieces from last week. Downstream purchasing interest remains tepid. Integrated manufacturers mainly rely on tolling polysilicon rather than direct purchases, while specialized wafer makers continue to build up inventory. Specifically, the supply-demand mismatch persists: 210RN wafers face ongoing inventory pressure, 183N is slightly better, while 210N remains in a tight balance.
Price Trend:
Under mounting market pressure, wafer makers are adopting divergent pricing strategies. Tier-1 manufacturers, guided by price cap policies, have kept their prices stable, whereas Tier-2 and Tier-3 players are offloading stock at lower prices to relieve inventory burdens, dragging overall transaction prices downward.
By wafer format segment, 183N and 210RN wafers are under price pressure and may see further declines, while 210N wafers remain firm thanks to short-term robust demand.
Cells
Inventory:
Current cell inventories remain at about 5–7 days, with ongoing structural differentiation. 210RN continues to dominate inventories, while 183N stocks are rising amid waning demand from the Indian market. 210N cells, supported by temporary strong market demand, have extremely low inventories.
Price Trend:
Prices for 183N cells have shifted downward as low-priced orders increased in the second half of the month following weaker Indian demand. 210RN prices are expected to stay at low but stable levels due to poor demand and high inventories. In contrast, 210N cells benefit from delivery expectations for a few utility-scale PV projects in China, offering stronger price support and potential for slight upticks ahead. Despite weak market demand, cell manufacturers and traders are still holding firm on prices under policy guidance. However, with demand expected to further soften, cell producers may face output cuts or price reductions by the end of October.
Modules
Demand and Price Trend:
Solar PV module demand remains weak, primarily driven by a limited number of domestic utility-scale projects, while distributed solar PV and overseas demand are both sluggish.
Among domestic utility-scale PV projects, the 720 W module format is enjoying relatively strong demand, expected to continue into mid-November. Prices have generally increased to above RMB 0.70/W, with solid transaction activity. Given the low inventory levels at module manufacturers, prices may continue to rise in the short term. However, once the delivery peak passes, a rapid price correction is also possible.
Conventional module formats still face high inventory levels and muted demand, with most deals concluded at RMB 0.65–0.68/W, and shipments proving difficult.
Overall, weak market demand and insufficient orders suggest that prices across the entire PV value chain may come under renewed downward pressure in the coming period.
