Polysilicon
Polysilicon inventories remain above 570,000 metric tons, indicating continued significant supply-demand imbalances. Domestic polysilicon producers continued to cut production this month, with total domestic output expected to fall to approximately 95,000 metric tons for the month. However, polysilicon supply still slightly exceeds downstream wafer manufacturers’ demand for the ingot, although the pace of inventory accumulation has slowed.
Downstream procurement remains largely driven by rigid demand and essential restocking needs. Leading manufacturers continue to quote prices for mono dense polysilicon above RMB 40/kg. However, futures prices are significantly lower than spot market quotations, prompting some companies to replenish inventories through futures traders, thereby adding downward pressure to spot market prices.
As the year-end approaches, financial and inventory pressures are gradually mounting for some producers. Combined with the approaching seasonal demand slowdown downstream, price cuts to facilitate sales by individual polysilicon manufacturers cannot be ruled out. Overall, the polysilicon market faces the risk of nominal price stability masking underlying price declines.
Wafers
Wafer inventories currently stand at around 27 GW. Overall supply remains relatively ample, while downstream cell demand provides insufficient support. Inventory pressure has yet to ease, and some manufacturers have already begun offering products at lower prices. Overall, wafer prices continue to hover at relatively weak levels.
By wafer size, prices for 183 mm wafers have fallen to around RMB 0.95/pc amid weakness in both supply and demand. Mainstream prices for 210R wafers remain at approximately RMB 1.00/pc, while 210N wafer prices are holding at around RMB 1.10/pc, primarily supported by demand from domestic utility-scale PV projects.
Overall, bullish and bearish factors are competing in the wafer market, with bearish sentiment becoming increasingly pronounced. Prices across all wafer sizes are showing signs of weakening, with a potential gradual downward trend. Going forward, close attention should be paid to polysilicon prices and downstream demand.
Solar Cells
Solar cell inventories currently stand at around seven days of production, with little change recently. Overall shipment pressure remains manageable, although market performance varies across different cell sizes.
Prices for 183 mm cells remain at around RMB 0.29/W amid weakness in both supply and demand. In overseas markets, demand for high-efficiency 210R cells for re-export via India has softened, leading to some price concessions. Traders have begun offloading inventories at lower prices, pushing mainstream transaction prices slightly down to around RMB 0.31/W.
By contrast, 210 mm cells are benefiting from demand support from domestic utility-scale PV projects in the fourth quarter, with prices holding at approximately RMB 0.315/W.
Solar cell prices are likely to remain under pressure in the coming period. On the one hand, any potential decline in upstream polysilicon prices could weaken cost support for solar cells. On the other hand, as market demand enters its seasonal low season, the supply-demand balance for solar cells may deteriorate again, adding further downward pressure on prices.
PV Modules
Domestic utility-scale PV projects are currently entering the final stage of installation ahead of year-end. Order deliveries for 210 mm modules have increased somewhat, while demand for modules of other sizes remains relatively weak. Market procurement is largely limited to essential demand and the fulfillment of previously awarded orders, with overall market trading activity remaining subdued.
Leading manufacturers are currently quoting TOPCon modules at RMB 0.70–0.72/W, while second-tier manufacturers' quotations remain at around RMB 0.68/W. Overall, module prices continue to show weak stability.
In the short term, as overseas policy windows gradually close in November and domestic projects move toward year-end completion, demand in both domestic and overseas markets is showing signs of contraction. Market activity is increasingly driven by existing orders, with insufficient follow-through in new orders. Against this backdrop of mounting supply-demand pressure, module prices face a risk of slight declines.
Nevertheless, expectations for anti-involution measures are strengthening at the policy level, while manufacturers are becoming increasingly focused on cost control. This has reinforced the industry's willingness to maintain price stability. Going forward, attention should be focused on the implementation of relevant policies and developments in polysilicon prices.
