In 2023, the continuous increase in silicon capacity and the decrease in prices throughout the industry chain are expected to release the pent-up demand for photovoltaic (PV) capacity. Furthermore, driven by national policies and market demand, the global demand for PV installations will remain strong. EnergyTrend, a reputable energy research center operated by TrendForce, specializes in analyzing the PV installation capacity, market dynamics, and policy developments of key countries across Asia Pacific, Europe, and the Americas.
China: PV installations capacity reached 61.21GW from Jan to May in 2023, with explosive growth in installed demand.
Between January and May 2023, China witnessed a remarkable growth in PV installations, with a total capacity of 61.21 GW, marking a substantial 158% year-on-year increase. In May alone, 12.9 GW of PV capacity were installed, indicating an 89% year-on-year growth but a slight 11.9% month-on-month decrease. The declining prices of silicon have resulted in increased profits within the PV industry chain, leading to a rise in the profitability of PV installations. As a result, China is projected to experience significant growth in its PV installed capacity throughout 2023.
Graph: China’s PV installation capacity reached 61.21 GW in the first five months of 2023, a substantial 158% year-on-year increase
India: PV installations capacity reached 4.52 GW in January to May in 2023; Tariff policy is expected to be adjusted.
In India, the overall PV installations capacity during this period amounted to 4.52 GW, indicating a 40.6% year-on-year decrease. Specifically, PV installations capacity in May reached 743 MW, displaying a significant 54% year-on-year decline and an impressive 150% month-on-month growth. The decrease in India’s module imports, influenced by the BCD tariff, alongside a substantial shipment of domestic PV modules to the United States, has resulted in insufficient domestic production capacity to meet the local PV installation demand. Consequently, India’s PV installations capacity experienced a sharp decline compared to the previous year. In April, the Indian government postponed ALMM by one year and shifted its focus to Chinese module exports.
Graph: Indian PV installations capacity increased 4.52 GW, down 40.6% year-on-year from January to May in 2023
Australia: PV installations capacity increased 521 MW from January to March in 2023, while distributed PV installations went down slightly year-on-year
In the first quarter of 2023, the PV installations capacity reached 521 MW, indicating a 29.3% year-on-year decrease. This Graph includes 272 MW of residential PV capacity, displaying a 14.7% year-on-year decrease, and 249 MW of commercial and industrial PV capacity, representing a 2.7% year-on-year decline. Australia, in March 2023, witnessed a significant drop in PV installation capacity, reaching 144 MW, which indicates a substantial 62% year-on-year decrease and a 32% month-on-month decrease. However, with the approval of a $15 billion budget (NRF) in April 2023, the local PV capacity in Australia is expected to increase.
Graph: PV installations capacity reached 521MW in Q1 in Australia, down 29.3% year-on-year
Germany: Reach 3.72 GW of PV installations from January to April in 2023, and its PV strategy will fuel growth in PV installations demand.
In the first four months of 2023, Germany witnessed significant growth in its PV capacity installations, reaching 3.72 GW, representing a substantial 79% year-on-year increase. In April alone, 882.7 MW of PV capacity were installed, indicating a 72% year-on-year growth but a 17.5% decrease month-on-month. The implementation of German’s VAT exemption for residential PV installations, which took effect in 2023, has fueled explosive growth in the demand for outdoor PV installations with a capacity of 30 kW and below. Additionally, the release of BMWK’s PV Strategy in May is expected to further accelerate the growth of installed PV demand in Germany. Notably, BMWK has recently initiated a public consultation for installing solar PV with a capacity of 10 GW, signaling an anticipated increase in local PV installation capacity.
Graph: PV installation capacity increased 3.72 GW in Germany, up 79% year-on-year from January to April in 2023
Spain: PV installations went up 716 MW capacity from January to April in 2023, and there are policies to support residential PV installation.
Moving on to Spain, the country installed 716 MW of PV capacity from January to April 2023, experiencing a 33% year-on-year decrease. Within this Graph, ground power plants accounted for 109 MW of PV capacity, representing a 25.4% year-on-year decrease and a substantial 42.7% decrease month-on-month. However, due to the increasing demand for Power Purchase Agreements (PPAs) and the impending deadline for grid connection in winning projects with a capacity of 2.9 GW, the PV capacity for ground power plants is expected to rise in the second half of the year. Additionally, the Spanish government offers various subsidies, such as IBI, ICIO, and the Next Generation Fund program, to support residential PV projects. Consequently, the residential PV sector is expected to thrive in 2023.
Graph :Monthly installed capacity of large ground-mounted power plants in Spain, Unit: MW
Netherlands: Reached 635 MW of new photovoltaic installations from January to May 2023, with high growth rates expected for household PV in 2023.
In the Netherlands, PV installations amounted to 635 MW from January to May 2023, indicating a 32.1% year-on-year decrease. The country's Net-metering and VAT exemption policies have laid the foundation for further growth in new household PV installations. In February 2023, the Netherlands allocated €8 billion in subsidies for the SDE++ program, with the first phase scheduled for June 2023. These subsidies will have an impact on commercial and industrial distributed PV projects as well as large ground-mounted PV projects.
Graph : Monthly PV installed capacity in the Netherlands(registered by certiQ), Unit: MW
Turkey: 629 MW of PV capacity has been installed from January to May in 2023, while FIT stimulates growth in PV installed demand.
Turkey, on the other hand, experienced a positive trend in PV capacity installations, reaching 629 MW from January to May 2023, showcasing a 20.8% year-on-year increase. In May, Turkey installed 123 MW of PV capacity, reflecting a 51% decrease compared to the previous year but an 11% month-on-month growth. In February 2023, Turkey introduced a minimum price for importing solar cells, favoring local Turkish manufacturers. Moreover, the Turkish government launched a 10-year Feed-in-Tariff (FIT) program for solar PV in May 2023, further stimulating the growth of installed PV demand in the country.
Graph : PV installations in Turkey reached 629 MW capacity from January to May 2023, up 20.8% year-on-year
U.S.: 6.1 GW capacity of PV installations reach in Q1 of 2023, as demand for large PV projects pick up.
In the first quarter of 2023, due to the postponement of large-scale PV projects for grid connection until 2023, the United States experienced a significant increase in PV capacity installations, reaching 6.1 GW, up 47% year-on-year and down 19% quarter-on-quarter. During the same period, the U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) expedited clearance processes and there are gradual improvements in the supply chain. As a result, 3.8 GW of large-scale PV ground-mounted plants were installed, reflecting a notable 66% year-on-year increase. The demand for large-scale PV projects in the U.S. is recovering thanks to the improving supply chain, the implementation of IRA bill, and strong demand for PPAs.
Graph: Quarterly U.S. PV Installed Capacity, Unit: MW
Brazil: 4.96 GW PV capacity are installed from January to April in 2023, and distributed PV installations are expected to grow.
PV installations are 4.96 GW capacity from January to April in 2023, up 115% year-on-year. In April, Brazil witnessed a substantial increase in PV installations capacity, reaching 1.12 GW, reflecting a significant 264% year-on-year increase but a 37% month-on-month decrease. Notably, distributed PV installations capacity reached 947 MW, indicating a remarkable 214% year-on-year growth, while centralized installations reached a capacity of 177 MW, representing a staggering 2429% year-on-year increase. The current implementation of the 15% distribution fee on distributed projects has had a limited impact, and lower component costs are expected to fuel the growth of distributed PV installations in Brazil throughout 2023. Additionally, the Brazilian free market (ACL) demonstrates a strong desire to procure PV generation, leading to high growth prospects for centralized PV installations in 2023.
Graph: PV installations capacity reach 4.96GW from January to April in 2023, up 115% year-on-year
Chile: PV installations capacity reach 675MW from January to April in 2023, while the amount of centralized PV installation capacity is limited.
Chile, in the same period, installed 675 MW of PV capacity, showcasing a 16% year-on-year increase. In April alone, PV installations capacity reached 379 MW, reflecting a remarkable 643% year-on-year growth and a 272% month-on-month increase. The net metering system and the commercial and industrial PV co-financing plan are expected to drive the high growth of distributed PV installations in Chile in 2023. However, the growth of ground-based power plants may be limited by the transmission system, resulting in limited installed demand.
Graph: Monthly installed PV capacity in Chile, Unit: MW
In general, in China, the PV installed demand experienced explosive growth from January to May 2023, with installed capacity exceeding 60 GW. In Europe, where the urgency of energy transition is prominent, the PV market continues to thrive. In the United States, thanks to the development of the supply chain and government policy support, the PV installed demand is on the path to recovery. However, in India, the impact of the Basic Customs Duty (BCD) tariff has led to a sharp decline in PV installed capacity compared to the previous year. Overall, the global PV installed capacity is expected to achieve significant growth in 2023.