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Mono silicon wafer production reduction plan has been implemented and then bearish has no meaning

published: 2024-05-17 15:37

This week's quotation reflects the willingness of mainstream wafer companies, and some low-priced bulk orders and other foreign product orders are not included. This week, N-type G12R mono-Si wafers were included in the scope of quotation and procurement. The market share of rectangular wafers, mainly G10L and G12R, has gradually increased, maximizing the utilization of loading space.

On the supply side, the wafer production schedule in May was about 63GW. This week, two leading enterprises and integrated enterprises significantly reduced their operating rates. On the one hand, the top enterprises did not ship at a high price in the early stage, so that the inventory at this stage fully meets the downstream procurement demand, and it is no longer meaningful to produce more silicon wafers at the current price of losing cash. On the other hand, it is much more cost-effective for integrated enterprises to purchase silicon wafers externally than to produce them themselves, so they adopt polysilicon foundry, dual distribution, and direct procurement. According to Silicon Industry of China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association, the wafer production schedule in May is about 63GW, which is basically the same as in February.

On the demand side, about 62GW of cells and 55GW of modules are scheduled in May. In terms of cells, the price of M10 mono-Si TOPCon cells fell to RMB 0.34/W, down more than 10% month-on-month. Recently, the continuous rise in the price of auxiliary and pv glass has created a backlog of main material batteries, making the price go all the way down. In terms of modules, the price of 182mm TOPCon bifacial double-glass modules fell to RMB 0.86/W, down nearly 8% month-on-month. In terms of overseas exports, the issue of the US 301 tariff and the expiration of the 201 tariff have aroused market concern. The former has little actual impact, and the latter has affected the crystalline silicon photovoltaic production capacity in Southeast Asia.

This week, the operating rates of the two first-tier enterprises fell to 60% and 80% respectively. The operating rate of integrated enterprises fell to between 60% and 80%, and the operating rate of the remaining enterprises fell to between 50% and 70% respectively. According to the above analysis, the market is currently at a critical juncture in the transformation of supply and demand. Although the industry-wide loss cannot be reversed immediately, it is meaningless to be bearish again in terms of a single wafer segment.

Source: Silicon Industry of China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association

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