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EnergyTrend: Inventory Turnover Is Still the Key Factor for the PV Market Development in 2H11

published: 2011-05-11 18:43

According to EnergyTrend’s survey, the average price of solar cell has approached $1.0/Watt. Manufacturers indicated that since the uncertainties in Europe has been neutrialized, the price quotation of solar cell stayed at $1.0/Watt. On the other hand, since some manufacturers have slashed the wafer price in order to reduce their inventories, the wafer price has come to $2.6/piece at the lowest, but the major closing price is still at over $2.8/Piece. Besides, the module price stayed between $1.4/Watt-$1.5/Watt. However, some polysillicon manufacturers still set their price at over $70/kg, which is not line with downstream manufacturers’ expectation.

According to latest survey, the price of polysilicon has decreased by 0.75% to 72.725/kg. EnergyTrend believes that since the uncertainties about Italian market has been settled, the price decrease has narrowed. However, manufacturers have still take a wait-and-see attitude toward the market development, and held back on the product price. Moreover, the price pressure also brings to Si-wafer manufacturers, and average price has decreased by 2.73%, to $2.89/piece. Besides, the mono-Si wafer has fallen by 0.99%, to $3.288/piece. Furthermore, the lowest spot price of solar cell still stayed at $0.9/Watt, but the average price dropped by 2.22%, to $1.011/Watt. Due to weak module market demand, the average price has broadly fallen by 2.42%, to $1.453/Watt. In terms of thin film, the average price has slightly decreased by 1.54%, to $1.151/Watt.

Although the Italian government has announced the latest subsidy policy, EnergyTrend indicates that the subsidy policy reveals both good and bad news. The good news is that the Italian government does not set a limitation on small system installation, and increases the specification to 1MW. The bad news is that Italian government set a certain amount of subsidy on the large system. In addition, if modules, PV inverters, and system installation parts made by European manufacturers can be adopted, the corporation can receive 10% reward, which gives non-European corporations a serious challenge in the European market. On the other hand, due to high inventory level in Europe, even the uncertain factor has disappeared, EnergyTrend believes that the recovery of market demand in 2H2011 depends on the speed of inventory clearance in the European market between June and August.

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