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Wafers to Trigger New Round of Inflation; End Sector Intensifies in Wait-and-See Attitude

published: 2022-04-28 17:16


Polysilicon had carried on with a small inflation this week, with mono polysilicon sitting on an overall quotation of roughly RMB 254/kg. Polysilicon businesses started signing for orders of May this week. The polysilicon market is currently restricted in supply due to unmitigated pandemic status in the country on the one hand, where impeded provision of raw materials for polysilicon has impacted output, while the import volume has also decelerated in arrival time due to the pandemic. Wafer businesses continue to release new capacity, and are generating incessant demand for polysilicon, where the sentiment of scarcity is yielding intensifying awareness in stocking that has only aggravated the excess demand status and provided sufficient inflation dynamics. On the other hand, the obstructed logistics in partial regions has delayed arrival time of polysilicon, and a number of businesses are seeking for new methods to increase their orders temporarily. A segment of sporadic and urgent orders have been concluded with high prices, which have somewhat elevated the prices of polysilicon. 

An observation on the production, operation, and shipment of the polysilicon segment indicated that two businesses are still under overhaul and maintenance this week. The domestic production volume of multi polysilicon is expected to be approximately 58K tons in April under a MoM increase of 6.2%, and the increment will primarily come from the expanded releases of businesses such as Yongxiang, GCL, and Daqo Energy. 


Wafer prices had slightly fluctuated this week, with M10 and G12 sitting at a respective mainstream concluded price of roughly RMB 6.78/pc and RMB 9.05/pc. Longi and Zhonghuan had successively increased their wafer prices on April 27th, with the former raising its P-type mono-Si M10 165μm wafer to RMB 6.86/pc under an increase of 0.6% compared to the previous increment, while the latter had raised the prices for its 160μm and 150μm P-type mono-Si wafers by RMB 0.06-0.11/pc, which is an increment of 1.05-1.2% compared to the price on April 2nd. Among which, 210 and 218.2mm wafers have now risen by RMB 0.1/pc in prices. Multi-Si wafers continued to climb in mainstream concluded price this week under fewer demand, and have now arrived at roughly RMB 2.45/pc, and a small segment of the product was also concluded at approximately RMB 2.47/pc. Mono-Si wafers are temporarily stabilized in demand, with merely a small portion that has been concluded at high prices. According to market feedbacks, the import of silica sand has been sluggish recently due to the pandemic, and partial large-sized crucibles for pull-rods have been confined in production. The overall operating rate of the wafer segment is currently at about 70-80%.


Cell prices remained essentially sturdy this week, with mono-Si M6, M10, and G12 cells sitting at a respective mainstream concluded price of roughly RMB 1.12/W, RMB 1.175/W, and RMB 1.17/W. The market, after the inflation of cells last week, is still gradually accepting the outcome. Material transportation of screen, gauze, and chemicals remains impeded due to the pandemic. Order intensity remains robust recently, though the demand for mono-Si M6 wafers is relatively lethargic with apparent fluctuations in concluded prices. On the contrary, M10 and G12 are provided with sufficient price support thanks to their thriving demand.


Module prices had remained constant to that of last week, with mono-Si 166, 182, and 210 modules sitting at a respective mainstream concluded price of approximately RMB 1.87/W, RMB 1.9/W, and RMB 1.92/W. According to the latest statistics announced by the National Energy Administration, the country added 13.21GW of new PV installations under a YoY increase of 147.8% during 2022Q1 amidst booming demand. Transportation remains unmitigated under the domestic pandemic development that has yet to alleviate, and a number of module makers are forced to lower their operating rate due to affected production plans. As the end of the month approaches, the market is now apparent in adhering to a wait-and-see attitude, while some project providers are still waiting for module makers’ list prices of May. The activation of domestic projects has not been significant under a small volume of centralized projects, where some distributed projects have now postponed due to the pandemic. Overseas markets carry on with their robust demand, where European and Latin American regions continue to increase in demand and order inquiries, and price bargaining will gradually clear up alongside the increase of polysilicon capacity and mitigation of the pandemic.

In terms of auxiliary materials, glass prices continued to stabilize this week, where 3.2mm and 2.0mm glasses now sit at a respective mainstream concluded price of roughly RMB 28/㎡ and RMB 21/㎡. Overall glass demand remains stable, with no apparent fluctuations in quotations, and the restricted transportation in partial regions has resulted in sluggish transactions.


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