Module Prices Risen from Cost Pressure amidst Constrained Polysilicon Provision

published: 2022-05-12 16:02 | editor: | category: Price Trend

Polysilicon 

Polysilicon prices have been surging for the most recent two weeks, with overall mono polysilicon quotations now risen to roughly RMB 259/kg under an increment of 1.97% primarily due to the longer quote interval, which somewhat reflects a persisting excess demand status. Wafer businesses continue to release new capacity under an acceptable forecast of demand and profitability, which explains their robust demand for polysilicon, while polysilicon is still currently postponed in expansion due to the pandemic, where the increment of capacity has fallen below anticipation. The polysilicon market lingers at an excess demand state with the increase of supply still catching up to the increase of demand. The successive signing of long-term and sporadic polysilicon orders after the holiday is providing a support for the inflation. Polysilicon businesses have signed for most May orders, and subsequent conclusions of sporadic and urgent orders will support a minor increase of prices. The US dollars of multi polysilicon in areas outside of China have dropped marginally due to exchange rate.  

An observation on the production, operation, and shipment of the polysilicon segment indicates that only individual businesses are conducting small-scale maintenance, which creates insignificant impact to the output. Polysilicon businesses are maintaining a high-capacity utilization, and are essentially holding onto zero to negative inventory. The provision of polysilicon is expected to increase in May upon gradually opening logistics after improvement is seen from the pandemic.

Wafers

Wafer prices have essentially stabilized for the most recent two weeks, with M10 and G12 sitting at a respective mainstream concluded price of roughly RMB 6.78/pc and RMB 9.05/pc. Most wafer businesses have successively adjusted their prices after the price increment from Longi and Zhonghuan before Labor Day. Downstream businesses cell businesses are expressing their restricted degree of acceptance towards the prices, which are however relatively supported thanks to the end demand and the market’s constant acceptance. Businesses with on-going operation had maintained normal production during the Labour Day holiday, while first-tier businesses had slightly increased their operating rate under a guaranteed supply of the product. In addition, HYT, Gaojing, and Shuangliang are climbing in wafer capacity, where the continuous increase of wafer supply is providing incentives for downstream cell businesses in maintaining a high degree of procurement. The unimpeded shipment has resulted in almost zero inventory, which further supports wafer prices.

Cells

Cell prices have been largely sturdy for the past two weeks, with M6, M10, and G12 sitting at a respective mainstream concluded price of approximately RMB 1.12/W, RMB 1.175/W, and RMB 1.17/W. Tongwei also announced an increase of RMB 0.01 for its M6 and M10 cells to RMB 1.14/W and RMB 1.18/W after the increment of wafer quotations by Longi and Zhonghuan on April 27th, and the elevated prices are still within the normal level. Downstream module makers are actively stocking right now, which provides a support of cell demand. The constrained material status and logistics introduced by the pandemic are still affecting the cell end, with prices currently being in the middle of bargaining with module makers. Some businesses have commented on individual participants’ optimistic perspective towards subsequent market prices, who are now reluctant in sales and unwilling to sign once per month.  

Modules

Module Prices had slightly risen in the most recent two weeks, with a minor increase of RMB 0.01 seen from the mainstream concluded prices of various sized modules, where mono-Si 166mm, 182mm, and 210mm modules now arriving at approximately RMB 1.88/W, RMB 1.91/W, and RMB 1.93/W. The profitability of modules is gradually inhibiting after several rounds of inflation from upstream raw materials and auxiliary materials, and the product has welcomed a minor increment of prices. The 2022 centralized procurement of PV modules by the Guangdong Hydropower Group had opened bids on May 11th, where single-sided single glass modules had an average tender tariff of RMB 1.906/W, and bifacial double glass modules had an average tariff of RMB 1.931/W. Module makers have amplified their production scheduled for May due to the continuously thriving demand in the European market during the second quarter, as well as the traditional peak demand season of the overseas markers, and the continuous development of domestic distributed projects that are more lenient towards module prices. Under such circumstance, prices will remain on a high level, and a continuous increase of upstream prices may lead to further extent of module inflation.                

In terms of auxiliary materials, glass prices had slightly fluctuated over the past two weeks, where 3.2mm and 2.0mm glasses have risen to RMB 28.5/㎡ and RMB 21/㎡ in respective mainstream concluded price. Glass businesses are now aiming to increase their prices due to an incessant ascension of production cost. As the end market demand exceeds anticipation, module makers are now rushing to stock up, where the continuous reduction of glass inventory and the slight increment of module prices are magnifying the acceptance towards the small price increase of glasses.

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