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“Polysilicon Remains as King” Resurfaces; Number of Wafer Businesses May Initiate Dual Distribution Methods of Outsourcing and Exports

published: 2022-05-19 16:09


Polysilicon prices were essentially stabilized this week, with overall mono polysilicon quotations sitting at roughly RMB 259/kg. Most polysilicon businesses had signed for their May orders, with fewer new orders that were being signed this week, and polysilicon prices were essentially stabilized. The pandemic and power restrictions have affected the existing domestic capacity and expanded capacity, though the mitigation in shipping and logistics is expected to bump up the level of imports and slightly increase the total provision. With that being said, wafer businesses such as Gaojing and Shuangliang are releasing significant volume of capacity that requires additional polysilicon, which is why the product will remain under an excess demand status on the whole. A segment of urgent and sporadic orders will still provide enough dynamics in a small inflation for polysilicon within the short term.

An observation on the production, operation, and shipment of the polysilicon segment indicates that most businesses are now operating under a full load status, and have no inventory pressure. OCI will resume production for its Malaysia plant in June after overhaul. Some polysilicon businesses have commented on the resurfacing tendency of “polysilicon remains as king”, and that businesses are not rushing to ship out their products under prospective prices since they are now exhibiting reluctance in sales as seen from their determination whether shipment is reasonable based on multiple factors such as payment method and client status.


Wafer prices had slightly fluctuated this week, with multi-Si wafers exhibiting an apparent degree of increment. M10 and G12 were concluded at a respective mainstream price of approximately RMB 6.78/pc and RMB 9.1/pc. The continuously robust end demand recently has resulted in persistent wafer demand, why is why wafer businesses are maintaining a higher level of operating rate, and the overall market provision has also risen owing to how the constant thinning of wafers has yielded a significant reduction of silicon consumption, where polysilicon of the same quality can now produce more wafers. However, the shortages of crucibles caused by the scarcity of high-purity silica sand remains unresolved. Multiple wafer businesses are currently releasing a large volume of new capacity, though the overall capacity utilization of wafers is confined by the restricted provision of polysilicon, and some businesses are going to alter their models of profitability by activating the dual distribution methods of outsourcing and exports.

Individual businesses have risen their prices of multi-Si wafers due to capacity constraints, which has impacted the overall multi-Si market, and there has been no apparent increase in the actual popularity of orders, with an extremely confined extent of market share.


Cell prices had remained largely sturdy this week, with mono-Si M6, M10, and G12 concluding at a respective mainstream price of roughly RMB 1.13/W, RMB 1.18/W, and RMB 1.17. Most cell businesses are now operating under a full load status amidst improvement from the pandemic status, as well as steadily eliminating negative factors, including the transportation of materials such as screen and chemicals that is now gradually opening up. The industry is currently sitting on an overall operating rate of 90%, of which large-sized products are continuously rising to 75% in ratio. In terms of orders, the exorbitant prices are resulting in fewer concluded orders, where the high prices of M6 and M10 cells are supported by a small amount of urgent orders.


This week’s module prices had remained leveled to that of last week, where mono-Si 166 mm, 182mm, and 210mm modules were concluded at a respective mainstream price of approximately RMB 1.88/W, RMB 1.91/W, and RMB 1.93/W. The first batch of 2022 centralized PV module procurement for long-term agreements by the China Coal Energy Group had opened bids recently, where the highest tender price was at RMB 2.036/W, with the average being RMB 1.957/W. End procurement has slowed down after module prices were forced to increase last week under cost pressure, and the industry is currently holding onto a higher degree of operating rate on the whole. The exchange rate of RMB continues to fall, and the trade surplus has invigorated module exports. The EU aims to attain the target of 600GW PV grid connection by 2030, which drastically elevated the demand for installations. With domestic ground power stations progressively magnifying in volume, as well as the continuously thriving demand for distributed PV, modules are provided with support for their high prices.

Pertaining to auxiliary materials, glass prices had marginally oscillated this week, where 3.2mm and 2.0mm glasses were concluded at a respective mainstream price of roughly RMB 28.5/㎡ and RMB 22.5/㎡. 2.0mm glasses had followed up this week on the price increment of 3.2mm glasses from last week. Glass quotations are expected to lack incessant inflation dynamics in succeeding periods under the signal of decelerating stocking intensity from the module market.

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