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Overall Industry Chain Prices in Reduction as Wafers Drop in Prices and Cut Production to Lower Inventory

published: 2023-05-18 16:14


Polysilicon prices saw a larger reduction this week, where mono-Si compound feedings and mono-Si dense materials were concluded at a respective mainstream price of RMB 138/kg and RMB 135/kg. Most new orders signed this week had come from first-tier businesses, who are carrying on with their order signing on a weekly basis, and even a daily basis, in order to reduce losses from price drops. Procurement demand for polysilicon has somewhat gone down due to how the downstream wafer segment has lowered its operating rate, where the excess supply status will persist from the new release of capacity and recovery of partial overhaul capacity in May among businesses such as GCL Leshan and Baotou, Daqo Baotou, Xinte, Asia Silicon, and East Hope. Impeded polysilicon shipment has led to an apparent increase of inventory, and prices are unable to break free from the declining trend also due to the on-going suppression from the crystal pulling end. Polysilicon prices could drop below RMB 100/kg in the short term.


Wafer prices continued to drop this week, where M10 and G12 were concluded at a respective mainstream price of RMB 4.5/pc and RMB 6/pc. Some cell businesses, in the face of frequent changes to upstream polysilicon and wafer prices recently, have somewhat lowered their wafer purchases in the hope of mitigating losses from price drops, which resulted in an on-going increase of wafer inventory. A portion of wafer businesses are reducing their prices and cutting production to alleviate inventory accumulation since there will still be subsequent releases of new wafer capacity. With that being said, the supply of wafers will remain excessive throughout May, and prices could maintain on a declining slope alongside the continuous reduction of upstream polysilicon prices until inventory returns to a reasonable level.


Cell prices had carried on with a declination this week, with M10 and G12 concluding at a respective mainstream price of RMB 0.95/W and RMB 1.05/W, and M10 mono-Si TOPCon cells sitting at RMB 1.08/W. Production cost for cells has dropped significantly alongside the decrement of upstream polysilicon and wafer prices, followed by an apparent reduction in prices due to the suppression coming from downstream modules. However, it is also noteworthy that cell businesses are currently under small pressure in shipment, and are maintaining a reasonable level of inventory, which is why they have been considerably recuperated in profitability as the decrement of mainstream market prices is far below that of the upstream sector.


Module prices had slightly dropped this week, where 182 & 210 mono-Si single-sided PERC modules were concluded at a respective mainstream price of RMB 1.66/W and RMB 1.67/W, while 182 & 210 bifacial double-glass mono-Si PERC modules saw a respective mainstream price of RMB 1.68/W and RMB 1.7/W.

Module prices are still relatively chaotic right now on the whole. Judging by the prices of recent module tenders, some module makers have started to fight for orders through low prices, and first-tier businesses are essentially sitting at RMB 1.64-1.68/W, while second and third-tier business are at about RMB 1.60/W. Module makers are now cautious towards procurement in the face of frequent price fluctuations from the upstream sector recently. Modules could also drop in prices amidst the continuous price reduction from various segments of the upstream sector, however, the extent of drop will be somewhat slower in comparison.

In terms of auxiliary materials, glass prices had maintained stability this week, where 3.2mm and 2.0mm glass were respectively concluded at a mainstream price of RMB 26/㎡ and roughly RMB 18.5/㎡. Module makers are focused on robust demand for their procurement, and glass businesses are thus seeing an insignificant increase in orders, followed by a slight accumulation of inventory from the attainment of production among previously ignited production lines, as well as the successive initiation of partial new production lines.

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