Pressure Increases in Negotiations for Polysilicon and Cell Prices; High Inventory Could Cause Wafer Prices to Drop Further

published: 2022-11-10 13:41 | editor: | category: Price Trend

Polysilicon

Polysilicon prices on the whole have been stable this week, but there are signs of slight weakening. Transaction prices of monocrystalline refeeding material have mostly arrived at RMB 308/kg. Transaction prices of monocrystalline dense material have mostly arrived at 305/kg. With orders for November being finalized, transaction prices have remained relatively constant from the previous week. However, the feedback from some polysilicon suppliers indicates that supply is expected to keep growing. This, together with the decline in wafer prices, are gradually putting pressure on polysilicon suppliers during negotiations. As upstream suppliers and downstream customers noticeably try to gain a more advantageous position during negotiations, polysilicon prices could reach an inflection point within this month.

Wafer

Wafer prices on the whole have also been stable this week. Transaction prices of M10 wafers have mostly arrived at RMB 7.37/pc. Transaction prices of G12 wafers have mostly arrived at RMB 9.71/pc. After price adjustments were made last week, orders are being finalized this week. Furthermore, downstream customers’ demand has been fairly strong. This is because wafer output has elevated on the back of rising polysilicon supply. At the same time, demand is outpacing supply in the cell market. Nevertheless, wafer prices could drop further in the future due to rising inventory. With polysilicon being plentiful, wafer suppliers have maintained a high capacity utilization rate (operating rate). Tier-1 suppliers’ capacity utilization rates are in the 75-85% range, while vertically-integrated manufacturers’ capacity utilization rates are in the 70-100% range. As for the rest of wafer suppliers, their capacity utilization rates are in the 80-100% range.

Cell

Cell prices on the whole have held steady during this week. Transaction prices of mono-Si M6 cells have mostly arrived at RMB 1.29/W. Transaction prices of M10 and G12 cells have mostly arrived around RMB 1.34/W and RMB 1.32/W respectively. Cell suppliers are maintaining a high capacity utilization rate because profit margin is high for their products at this moment. Supply still appears to be tight for large-sized cells, but efforts to raise cell prices have been constrained by the decline in wafer prices. Hence, cell suppliers are under a bit of pressure as they negotiate prices during this week. Upward momentum is lacking for cell prices as well.

Module

Module quotes on the whole have remained constant from the previous week. Looking at monofacial (single-sided) modules, transaction prices of those with 166mm mono-Si cells have mostly arrived around RMB 1.91/W, transaction prices of those with 182mm mono-Si cells and 210mm mono-Si cells have mostly arrived around RMB 1.97/W. Looking at bifacial double-glass modules, transaction prices of those with 182mm PERC cells and 210mm PERC cells have mostly arrived at RMB 2/W.

Orders and shipments have been brisker for modules in the recent period as end demand picks up. Some module suppliers have raised their capacity utilization rates so as to meet the rising demand. However, price hikes for cells and glass materials have also increased the cost pressure on module suppliers. Therefore, some module suppliers intend to adjust their quotes when negotiating with customers over orders. Nevertheless, they are having difficulties to get their desired prices due to the consideration about customers’ willingness to accept price hikes. Regarding modules with N-type cells, their price trend is also relatively stable during this week with quotes mostly arriving at RMB 2.16-2.2/W.

Regarding prices of auxiliary materials during this week, glass prices have been relatively stable. Prices of 3.2mm and 2.0mm glass have mostly arrived around RMB 28/m2 and RMB 21.5/m2 respectively. The demand for glass materials have climbed further as module suppliers raise their capacity utilization rates. Although some module suppliers face constraints when raising quotes, module shipments continue to be brisk because the overall inventory level was previously low, and module demand for the most part is rigid. Also, demand has elevated for 2.0mm glass.

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